Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Toronto Blue Jays (6-4) head to Fenway Park Tuesday to start a three-game set with the Boston Red Sox (5-5) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Toronto won two games of its three-game set with the Oakland Athletics Friday-Sunday following a four-game series split at the New York Yankees earlier last week. The Blue Jays are 4-3 over that span.

Boston lost to Minnesota Twins 8-3 Monday in their four-game series finale to split the series. The Red Sox won two games during their previous three-game series at the Detroit Tigers from April 11-13.

The Blue Jays lost to the Red Sox 10-9 in last year’s regular-season series but Toronto outscored Boston 110-81 in 2021.

Blue Jays at Red Sox: Projected starters

LHP Yusei Kikuchi vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi 

Kikuchi (0-1, 5.40 ERA) got roughed up in a defeat in his season debut at the Yankees last Tuesday. He allowed 2 ER (3 R) on 5 H and 2 BB with 2 K across 3 1/3 IP in a 4-0 loss.

  • 2021 vs. Red Sox: Loss, 6-5, in 4 2/3 IP with 5 ER on 6 H and 3 BB with 1 K in one start with the Seattle Mariners.
  • vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 9.05 FIP with a .257 batting average (BA), .370 wOBA, .603 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 13.5 K% and 90.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 37 plate appearances (PA).

Eovaldi (1-0, 4.59 ERA) earned a win in his second start of the season at the Tigers Wednesday. He allowed 2 ER on 4 H and 1 BB with 6 K across 5 IP in a 9-7 victory.

  • 2021 vs. Blue Jays: 0-1 with 5.56 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 11 H, 3 BB and 8 K in two starts.
  • vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 6.62 FIP with a .269 BA, .364 wOBA, .416 xSLG, 18.9 K% and 91.2 mph EV in 74 PA.

Blue Jays at Red Sox and lines

  • Money line (ML): Blue Jays +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Red Sox -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-170) | Red Sox -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

Blue Jays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 4

Money line

The RED SOX (-145) is the play because Fenway Park had the highest park factor run value versus left-handed pitchers last season (according to Statcast) and Boston’s lineup has hit Kikuchi very well.

I’m also higher on the Red Sox’s bullpen since their pitching peripherals are much better than the Blue Jay’s bullpen. Boston’s relievers rank sixth in FIP, fifth in K-BB% and 10th in home runs allowed per 9 innings while the Blue Jays’ bullpen is bottom 10 in all those metrics, per FanGraphs.

Furthermore, this is a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market. Nearly 90% of the bets placed are on the Blue Jays but roughly two-thirds of the cash is on the Red Sox according to Tipico Sportsbook. It’s typically wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public in sports betting.

BET 1 unit on the RED SOX (-145).

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN to the RED SOX -1.5 (+135), if at all, because Toronto’s bullpen could get raked against this star-studded Boston lineup.

However, the Red Sox have a losing RL record as home favorites since the beginning of last season (35-41 RL) and the Blue Jays certainly have the bats to backdoor cover this spread.

Over/Under

PASS because most of the market is betting the Over, both teams have played more to the Under versus divisional foes since the start of 2021 and Toronto is 13-29-1 O/U as a road underdog over that span.

Author: Lucy Green