St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

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The St. Louis Cardinals (44-36) are center stage against the Philadelphia Phillies (41-38) for Sunday Night Baseball at Citizens Bank Park in the finale of a 3-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The series is tied 1-1.

St. Louis held off the Phillies 6-5 Saturday after blowing a 5-0 lead fueled by 4 first-inning home runs. They jumped out to a 3-run lead Friday, and their bullpen couldn’t hold that lead, either, as they lost 5-3. The Cards are 5-5, 10-10 and 15-15 over the last 5, 10 and 30 games, respectively.

The Phils are staying afloat without star OF Bryce Harper, who is expected to miss another 3-5 weeks with a broken thumb. Philadelphia is 21-20 at home this season. First baseman Rhys Hoskins continues to mash as he’s hitting .350 with a .480 OBP, 3 HR and 4 RBI over the last 7 days.

Cardinals at Phillies projected starters

RHP Adam Wainwright vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Wainwright (6-5, 3.07 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 91 IP.

  • He threw a complete-game loss against the Phillies last season, allowing 2 R on 6 H with 8 K in 9 IP.
  • His WHIP is way up from 1.06 last season, and he has allowed 50 hits in 46 IP in his last 7 starts.
  • Current Phillies are hitting .305 with a .359 weighted on-base average in 90 plate appearances against him.

Wheeler (6-4, 2.89 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 81 IP.

  • Has given up 5 ER in 10 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts
  • Has 8 or more strikeouts in 6 of last 8 starts
  • Current Cardinals are hitting .194 with a .240 weighted on-base average in 35 plate appearances against him.

Cardinals at Phillies odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Cardinals +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Cardinals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Cardinals 4

Money line

The Cards nearly emptied its bullpen Saturday after LHP Matthew Liberatore was only able to go 2 2/3 innings. That’s when Wainwright steps up and delivers 6 or 7 innings. The Cards have scored at least 3 runs in 7 straight games. These teams are so evenly matched, I’m willing to LEAN CARDINALS FIRST 5 INNINGS (+160). I can’t go with them for the full game because their best reliever Ryan Helsley, threw 37 pitches Saturday and is likely off limits Sunday.

Run line/Against the spread

The Cardinals +1.5 (-160) is right at my limit for a run line. The Cards are 24-16 on the run line on the road. I would consider that, or you can go with a special BOOSTED prop bet for WHEELER WITH 8 K’s & THE PHILLIES WIN (+340). The Cards don’t strike out a lot, but Wheeler fanned them 9 times in his April 2021 start, and he has hit 8 K in 6 of his last 8 starts overall.

Over/Under

These 2 have hit this number in both games, and it’s expected to be a warm 88 degrees at game time. So the ball could travel, and both pitchers have given up hard contact of late. We’ll take the OVER 7.5 (-120) for a HALF UNIT.

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Author: Lucy Green