St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

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The St. Louis Cardinals (3-2) meet the Milwaukee Brewers (4-3) Friday in the second of their 4-game set at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won Thursday’s first game of the series 5-1, thanks to SP Brandon Woodruff‘s 5 IP with 0 ER and C Omar Narvaez’s 2-for-4 night with a home run, double and 2 RBIs.

St. Louis beat Milwaukee in last year’s regular-season series 11-8 and the Cardinals had a plus-18 run differential over the Brew Crew in those games. Also, Milwaukee was 3-7 at home versus St. Louis in 2021.

Cardinals at Brewers: Projected starters

RHP Miles Mikolas vs. RHP Freddy Peralta 

Mikolas (0-0, 4.91 ERA) had a no-decision Saturday in St. Louis’s 6-2 win at home over the Pittsburgh Pirates. He went 3 2/3 IP, allowing 2 ER on 6 H and 2 BB with 1 K.

  • 2021 vs. Brewers: 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 1 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 2.92 FIP with a .235 batting average (BA), .274 wOBA, .425 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.3 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 89 plate appearances (PA).

Peralta (0-0, 6.75 ERA) had a no-decision in Milwaukee’s 5-4 comeback victory Sunday over the Cubs in Chicago. In 4 IP, he gave up 3 ER on 3 H and 4 BB with 6 K.

  • 2021 vs. Cardinals: 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA (17 IP, 10 ER), 16 H, 4 BB and 23 K in 4 starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 5.05 FIP with a .274 BA, .368 wOBA, .430 xSLG, 26.6 K% and 87.2 mph EV in 128 PA.

Cardinals at Brewers odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Cardinals +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Brewers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-160) | Brewers -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Cardinals at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Brewers 3

Money line

BET the CARDINALS (+130) because they are better in two of the most important phases of the game (hitting and bullpen pitching) and St. Louis owns Peralta.

Most casual fans view the Brewers (-160) as a pitching powerhouse, which is true of their starting rotation. But Milwaukee’s bullpen struggled significantly down the stretch in 2021.

Furthermore, the Brew Crew’s lineup was one of the most disappointing in the NL last season and is off to another slow start this year. While the Cardinals hitters are producing out the gate and are tied for second in wRC+.

I agree with Milwaukee being slightly favored but the Brewers (-160) have a 61.5% implied win probability and they do not win this game 60% of the time.

TAKE the CARDINALS (+130).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Cardinals +1.5 (-160) because I’d love some insurance for our St. Louis ML wager and the Brewers -1.5 (+130) are just 31-44 RL since the beginning of last season.

But only 3 of the 19 Cardinals-Brewers meetings last season were decided by 1 run and St. Louis’s RL is just a little out of my price range.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-108) because of Peralta’s aforementioned struggles versus the Cardinals, the weather forecast is predicting 12.5 mph winds blowing out to left-center field and the total has been increased due to a sharp line move. 

However, St. Louis’s ML is by far my favorite bet in this game hence the LEAN OVER 8.5 (-108).

Author: Lucy Green