San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

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The San Francisco Giants (27-21) are in Citizens Bank Park Wednesday to wrap up a 3-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies (21-29). First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco leads the season series 2-0 after winning the first 2 games in Philly in extra innings — 5-4 Monday in 10 innings then 7-4 Tuesday in 11.

Giants at Phillies projected starters

LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Rodon is 4-4 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 50 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 5-1 Friday at the Cincinnati Reds with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 2 K.
  • May splits: 1-4 with a 5.67 ERA (27 IP, 17 ER), 3 HR, 1.59 WHIP and 2.2 K/BB rate in 5 starts.

Nola is 2-4 with a 3.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 60 2/3 IP across 10 starts.

  • Last start: Won 4-1 Thursday at the Atlanta Braves with 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 10 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Giants: A no-decision in Philly’s 13-6 win in San Francisco June 19 with 2 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 1 K.

Giants at Phillies odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Giants +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-210) | Phillies -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Giants at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Giants 2

Money line

LEAN PHILLIES (-125) because Rodon struggled in May while Nola has been dialed in lately and because the Giants (+102) clinched a series victory in Philly by winning 2 coin-flip games so the Phillies are due for one before the Giants leave town.

Nola dominated the Braves in Atlanta in his last start while Rodon got beat by a last-place Cincinnati Reds team. Also, Rodon cools down in the summer months, ironically. Rodon is 11-5 for his career in March and April with a 3.05 ERA but 14-26 with a plus-4.00 ERA from May-July.

However, I cannot get past a LEAN to the PHILLIES (-125) since they are 2-8 in Nola’s 10 starts, Philly’s lineup has been a bottom-5 unit in baseball over the last 2 weeks and Philly’s bullpen is worse than San Francisco’s.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. 

I “lean” to the Phillies -1.5 (+170) because this is a juicy payout and Philly’s lineup could rake Rodon if he’s not in form. But, the Phillies are just 8-14 RL as home favorites and their bullpen is unreliable.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105) only because we are getting to the party late on the total. Giants-Phillies opened with an 8.5-run total before Under money flooded the betting market, according to Pregame.com.

Fading the market isn’t an option since there are 2 top-of-the-rotation starters on the mound Wednesday and each team’s location-based trends skew towards the Under. Also, Citizens Bank Park has the lowest park factor in the MLB, aka is the MOST pitcher-friendly venue.

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Author: Lucy Green