San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The San Francisco Giants (27-22) head to loanDepot park Thursday to start a 4-game series with the Miami Marlins (20-28). First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco had its 3-game win streak snapped Wednesday in a 6-5 loss in the series finale of a 3-game set at the Philadelphia Phillies. The Giants are 5-5 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games.

Miami split a doubleheader Wednesday at the Colorado Rockies, winning the first game 14-1 before losing the second outing 13-12 in extra innings. The Marlins are just 3-7 SU in their last 10 and have dropped 4 consecutive series.

The Giants lead the season series with the Marlins 2-1 and have a plus-1 run differential.

Giants at Marlins projected starters

LHP Alex Wood vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara

Wood is 3-4 with a 4.81 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 43 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 3-2, Saturday at the Cincinnati Reds with 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Marlins: 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA (12 IP, 1 ER), 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 11 K across 2 starts.

Alcantara is 5-2 with a 2.00 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 67 2/3 IP over 10 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 4-1, Saturday at the Atlanta Braves with 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 14 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Giants: No-decision in 6-5 loss at San Francisco April 8 with 5 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 3 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 4 K.

Giants at Marlins odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Giants +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Marlins -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-180) | Marlins -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

Giants at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Giants 1

Money line

BET the MARLINS (-150) because they are better than their record indicates and Miami has a 3-phase edge over the Giants in starting and relief pitching and hitting. The Marlins have a 26-22 Pythagorean record, which is based on run differential.

Alcantara is a Cy Young candidate through May and has been dealing lately. He’s gone 8 or more innings in 3 consecutive starts and hasn’t allowed more than 1 earned run in any of those outings with 26 strikeouts over that span.

Miami’s bullpen ranks ahead of San Francisco’s in ERA (4.50-3.85), WHIP (1.37-1.31), xFIP (4.11-3.66), contact rate (77.5-72.9%) and swinging-strike rate (13.1-11.0%), according to FanGraphs.

Miami’s lineup also ranks ahead of San Francisco’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (117-109) and wOBA (.332-322).

There’s reverse line movement in the betting market as most of the money and action is on San Francisco at Tipico Sportsbook but Miami’s price is getting more expensive. This suggests Tipico is trying to entire more pro-Giants action from bettors.

Let’s go the opposite way and BET 1 unit on the MARLINS (-150).

Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE on the MARLINS -1.5 (+145), if at all, because of the juicy payout and their aforementioned edges in this matchup and Miami has won 3 of Alcantara’s last 4 starts by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under

PASS with a “lean” to the Under because the weather forecast is predicting 17 mph winds blowing in from right-center field, Alcantara is a bonafide ace and the Giants-Marlins were 1-2 O/U in their first set this season.

However, San Francisco is 5-4-1 O/U as an underdog, Miami is 8-5-1 O/U as a favorite and this total is too sharp.

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Author: Lucy Green