San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The San Francisco Giants (4-2) start a 3-game interleague series with the Cleveland Guardians (4-2) Friday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Guardians and Giants have not played each other since 2017. The Giants lead 5-14 in the regular season and have won 10 of the last 12 meetings between the teams.

San Francisco won back-to-back games over the San Diego Padres to win their 3-game series 2-1. The Giants outscored the Padres 17-7.

Cleveland has won 4 consecutive games after dropping its first two of the season, which includes a split in their 4-game set with the Royals and a sweep in the 2-game interleague miniseries with the Reds earlier this week.

Giants at Guardians: Projected starters

San Francisco RHP Carlos Rodon vs. Cleveland LHP Zach Plesac 

Rodon (0-0, 1.80 ERA) picked up a no-decision in San Francisco’s 2-1 home loss to the Marlins Saturday. He went for 5 IP, allowing just 1 ER on 3 H and 2 BB with 12 K.

  • 2021 vs. Guardians: 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA (20 IP, 6 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 10.4 K/9 in 3 starts for the Chicago White Sox.
  • vs. Guardians on the current roster: 3.05 FIP with a .176 batting average, .257 wOBA, .309 expected slugging percentage, 24.1 K% and 90.0 mph exit velocity in 83 plate appearances.

Plesac (0-0, 0.00 ERA), also earned a no-decision in Cleveland’s 1-0 loss in K.C. Saturday. He gave up 0 ER on 3 H, 0 BB and 5 K in 5 2/3 IP.

  • April splits: 1-3 with a 4.78 ERA (32 IP, 17 ER), 1.06 WHIP and 5.9 K/9 in 6 starts.

Giants at Guardians odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Giants -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Guardians +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants -1.5 (+110) | Guardians +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Giants at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Giants 2

Money line

SPRINKLE on the GUARDIANS (+125), if at all, because I see more value in Cleveland’s RL, which is going for a relatively cheap price.

The Guardians have the hottest bats in baseball through the first week, Friday is their home opener and Progressive Field is a hitter-friendly ballpark. Also, Cleveland’s lineup is familiar with Rodon who was a divisional foe and played for the Chicago White Sox from 2015-21.

This Giants (-155) lineup has yet to face Plesac, who I expect to be one of the best middle-of-the-rotation starters in MLB. Cleveland’s organization is a pitching factory and the rotation alone can put the Guardians in playoff contention.

However, San Francisco is somehow underrated coming into this year despite winning the NL West last season and I prefer Cleveland’s RL.

Run line/Against the spread

Definitely BET the GUARDIANS +1.5 (-135) instead of or heavier than their ML because Cleveland should beat the Giants -1.5 (+110) outright. but the RL is just too cheap to pass up.

Furthermore, there’s reverse line movement in Cleveland’s direction as nearly two-thirds of the money is on San Francisco but the line has moved slightly towards the Guardians. This suspicious line movement tells us the oddsmakers are trying to entice more pro-Giants action.

A Cleveland ML bet should cash but my preferred play is the GUARDIANS +1.5 (-135).

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (+100)

This is a sharp total and there are two quality starters on the mound. Plesac is due for a breakout season and Rodon was an AL Cy Young contender last season and his pitching peripherals versus this Cleveland lineup are solid.

But Cleveland’s lineup is hot and powered by Guardians 3B Jose Rameriz, who was recently given a hefty contract extension and is dialed in at the plate.

Author: Lucy Green