Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Philadelphia Phillies (3-3) and Miami Marlins (1-4) tussle Thursday for the opener of a four-game series at loanDepot park in Miami. First pitch is lined up for a 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Marlins with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: 0-0 (Miami took 10-of-19 games from Philadelphia last season)

Philadelphia is playing its first road game of the season and heads into this series as losers of three of its last four games. Philly played just .432 ball (35-46) away from home last season.

The Marlins have scored 3 runs or fewer in four straight games and overall have slashed a mere .199/.264/.313 (batting/on-base/slugging) so far.

Phillies at Marlins: Projected starters

Phillies RHP Kyle Gibson vs. Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara

Gibson (1-0, 0.00 ERA) is making his second start. He allowed 2 H with 10 K across 7 IP in his debut.

  • Has clocked a .904 OPS-against facing current Miami bats.
  • Logged a 3.71 ERA across a combined 182 IP for the Phillies and Texas Rangers in 2021.

Alcantara (0-0, 3.60 ERA) makes his second start. He allowed 3 R (2 ER) on 3 H and 5 BB with 4 K across 5 IP.

  • Logged a 3.19 ERA in 205 2/3 IP last season. Posted a career-best 2.2 BB/9.
  • Phillies batters own an aggregate .776 OPS against him.

Phillies at Marlins odds, spread and lines

  • Money line: Phillies -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Marlins -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+160) | Marlins +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Phillies at Marlins prediction and picks

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 4

Money line

The Phillies have the deeper, more balanced lineup. They are a club that got more futures attention as Opening Day approached, and they’re worth a play in this spot.

BACK THE PHILLIES (-103).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS on this juice-drowned offering.

Over/Under

The starters’ 2021 lines were embellished by some favorable BABIP figures, and so there is some double-barreled fade lean there.

Both offenses have faced above-average pitching so far, and Miami has toiled around a .246 BABIP.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-122).

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Author: Lucy Green