The Atlanta Braves (21-23) host the Philadelphia Phillies (20-24) Thursday in the finale of their 4-game series at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Braves took a 2-1 series lead by beating the Phillies 8-4 Wednesday following a 6-5 win Tuesday and a 7-3 loss Monday. Atlanta is now 5-5 straight up (SU) over its last 10 games and Philly is 3-7 SU in its last 10.
Season series: The Braves lead 2-1.
Phillies at Braves projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Kyle Wright
Nola is 1-4 with a 3.96 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 52 1/3 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in 7-4 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 9 K.
- 2021 vs. the Braves: 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 in 30 1/3 IP over 5 starts.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 4.93 FIP with a .243/.322/.469 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with 26.0 K% and 89.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 254 plate appearances (PA).
Wright is 4-2 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 47 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Win, 4-3, Saturday at the Miami Marlins with 5-scoreless IP, 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 10.95 FIP with a .278/.513/.708 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 12.5 K% and 89.7 mph EV in 24 PA.
Phillies at Braves odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+160) | Braves +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Braves 5, Phillies 3
BET BRAVES (-115) because I give them the edge in both starting and relief pitching over the Phillies and both lineups have mediocre production thus far.
FanGraphs has Wright as the 9th-best starter in their power rankings while Nola is 23rd, which is still very impressive.
However, 4 of Wright’s 5 pitches have a minus-run value (RV), per Statcast, while just 2 of Nola’s 5 pitches have a minus-RV and Nola struggles in Atlanta.
Nola is 2-6 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB rate (all worse than his career marks) in 10 career starts at Truist Park.
Atlanta’s bullpen is also 1st in FIP (2.87), 3rd in hard-hit rate (35.9%) and 6th in K/BB rate (3.03), according to FanGraphs.Whereas Philly’s bullpen has a 3.87 FIP (ranked 17th), a 42.0% hard-hit rate (27th) and a 2.02 K/BB rate (29th).
There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market for Tipico Sportsbook. More than 70% of the bets placed are on Philly’s ML but three-fourths of the cash is on Atlanta’s ML. Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money since sharps bet a lot more money than your average Joe.
The BRAVES (-115) is my favorite wager in this game.
Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE on the BRAVES -1.5 (+180) ALTERNATE RL, if at all, because this is such a chunky payout and Atlanta is 3-1 SU vs. Nola in their last 4 meetings and all 3 of those wins were by at least 4 runs.
PASS since we are getting to the party way late on the total. Phillies-Braves opened with an 8.5-run total (according to Pregame.com) but has been steamed down by sharp action to the current number.
However, Philly is 3-0-1 O/U in Nola’s last 4 starts, Atlanta is 15-5-2 O/U as a home favorite and the Over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Phillies-Braves meetings.
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