The Atlanta Braves (52-36) host the New York Mets (54-33) Wednesday for the 2nd game of their 3-game series at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Mets SP Max Scherzer outdueled Braves SP Max Fried Monday to help N.Y. win the series opener 4-1. Scherzer went 7 innings and allowed only a solo home run, issuing no walks and striking out 9 batters.
Season series: N.Y. leads 3-2 but Atlanta has a plus-3 run differential in those meetings.
Mets at Braves projected starters
LHP David Peterson vs. RHP Spencer Strider
Peterson is 5-1 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 62 IP over 11 starts and 2 bullpen outings.
- Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 8-3 win Wednesday at the Cincinnati Reds with 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 vs. the Braves: One start — a 5-4 home win May 3 — with 5 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 4 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
Strider is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 14.0 K/9 in 65 2/3 IP over 8 starts and 11 relief appearances.
- Last start: No-decision in Atlanta’s 3-2 home loss Thursday vs. the St. Louis Cardinals with 6-scoreless IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 12 K.
- 2022 home splits: 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 1 HR and 14.2 K/9 in 4 starts and 6 bullpen outings.
Mets at Braves odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Mets +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mets at Braves picks and predictions
Braves 6, Mets 2
LEAN BRAVES (-190) only because we are getting the worst of the number since Atlanta’s ML opened at -145 but has been steamed up by sharp action, according to Pregame.com. That said, the Braves have a 3-phase edge over the Mets in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Strider is the odds-on favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year at +200 and has way nastier stuff than Peterson who has a 5.84 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. the Braves since the start of 2020.
Atlanta’s lineup is also more productive vs. left-handed pitching than N.Y.’s is against righties. The Braves have a higher wRC+ (118-113), wOBA (.342-.322), ISO (.200-.149), BB/K rate (0.40-0.37) and hard-hit rate (34.4-27.9%), per FanGraphs.
However, I would entertain parlaying Atlanta’s ML with another similarly priced team for a better payout and I’m confident enough in the Braves to bet their RL.
Run line/Against the spread
BET 0.75 units on the BRAVES -1.5 (+110) based on the aforementioned logic and 4 of the 5 Mets-Braves meetings this season have been decided by at least 3 runs. Furthermore, Atlanta’s RL has been dragged down by sharp action from a +135 opener, per Pregame.com.
Neither starter is a “top-of-the-rotation” guy, both lineups rake Tuesday’s opposing pitcher’s handedness and N.Y. is 10-6-3 O/U as a road underdog.
However, the Under 8.5 (-110) appears to be the sharper play since the Over feels like a trap line.
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