Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Tampa Bay Rays (40-32) host the Milwaukee Brewers (42-33) for the start of their interleague back-to-back Tuesday at Tropicana Field with the 1st pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee is 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes a 2-1 series win last weekend at home vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.

Tampa swept the Pittsburgh Pirates at home last weekend in a 3-game set, but the Rays are just 5-5 SU in the last 10 due to 2 straight series losses to the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles.

Tuesday’s Brewers-Rays meeting is their 1st of the year and first since the 2017 season. Tampa leads the all-time series 7-5.

Brewers at Rays projected starters

RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. RHP Shane Baz      

Woodruff is 5-3 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 43 2/3 IP over 9 starts. He has been sidelined with an ankle injury since late May.

  • Last start: Lost 4-2 May 27 at the St. Louis Cardinals with 4 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
  • 2022 road splits: 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA (21 IP, 19 ER), 1.81 WHIP, 4 HR and 10.3 K/9 in 5 starts.

Baz is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA (13 IP, 6 ER), 9 H, 2 HR, 5 BB and 15 K in 3 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Tampa’s 5-4 home loss Wednesday to the Yankees with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • Career home splits: 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 9 H, 3 HR, 3 BB and 20 K in 3 starts.

Brewers at Rays odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Brewers -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Rays -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+170) | Rays +1.5 (-210)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +112 | U: -140)

Brewers at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 3, Brewers 2

Money line

BET a half-unit on the RAYS (-117) because they crush National League opponents and have been steamed up by sharp action.

Tampa has the best record in interleague play since 2020 at 40-17 SU and is 10-1 in 2022 while the Brewers (-103) are just 22-24 SU vs. American League foes. Also, the Rays opened at -109 according to Pregame.com, but that’s been increased because MLB betting sharps are staking Tampa.

I’d go lite on the RAYS (-117) because the hitting and relief pitching matchups between these 2 sides are fairly even and Baz hasn’t found his groove yet.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Rays +1.5 (-210) are accurately priced, and too expensive, considering they are 6-3 RL as home underdogs whereas the Brewers -1.5 (+170) are 10-20 RL as road favorites.

Eventually, Tampa should flip to a RL favorite but I wouldn’t lay it with the Rays either since they don’t have a big enough edge over Milwaukee Tuesday.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-140) since the presumed sharp side of the market is on the Under while the public is betting the Over 7.5 (+112).

More than 90% of the money is on the Under but roughly 60% of the bets placed are on the Over, per Pregame.com. Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe.

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Author: Lucy Green