Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Milwaukee Brewers (34-29) meet the New York Mets (41-22) Wednesday for the 2nd of their 3-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

N.Y. won the series opener, 4-0, Tuesday thanks to a dominant outing from Mets SP Chris Bassitt, who went 8-scoreless innings, allowing just 3 hits and 1 walk with 7 strikeouts. Mets 1B Pete Alonso powered the offense with a 2-for-3 and 2-RBI night.

Tuesday’s Brewers-Mets meeting was the 1st of the year.

Brewers at Mets projected starters

RHP Corbin Burnes vs. LHP David Peterson  

Burnes is 3-4 with a 2.48 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 72 2/3 IP over 12 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 8-3, at home Thursday vs. the Philadelphia Phillies with 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 8 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Mets: 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 11 H, 1 BB and 17 K in 2 starts.

Peterson is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 36 IP over 6 starts and 2 relief appearances.

  • Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 9-4 win at the Los Angeles Dodgers with 3 2/3 IP, 2 H, 4 R (2 ER), 4 BB and 6 K.
  • This is Peterson’s 1st start vs. the Brewers.

Brewers at Mets odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Brewers -135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+125) | Mets +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Brewers at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Brewers 3

Money line

LEAN METS (+110).

The Brewers (-135) are overpriced because the reigning National League Cy Young winner is on the mound. But, N.Y.’s lineup is so much better vs. right-handed pitching than Milwaukee’s against lefties.

The Brew Crew is 9-13 overall against lefty starters, and their lineup ranks 27th in wRC+ (85), 24th in wOBA (.292) and 22nd in BB/K rate (0.37), per FanGraphs. The Mets are 29-12 vs. righty starters with a 120 wRC+ (tied for 1st), .333 wOBA (2nd) and 0.41 BB/K rate (8th) vs. right-handed pitching.

It’s only a LEAN to the METS (+110) because N.Y.’s RL is a sharper wager.

Run line/Against the spread

RISK 1 unit on the METS +1.5 (-155) instead of betting to win 1 unit.

Not only do the Mets have a massive edge in the hitting department, but N.Y.’s bullpen is as strong as Milwaukee’s. Also, the Brewers -1.5 (+125) are just 8-19 RL as road favorites while the Mets are 11-6 RL as underdogs.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 7.5 (-120).

The Mets are 10-5-2 O/U as underdogs and 5-1 O/U in Peterson’s 6 starts and the Brewers are 14-11-2 O/U as road favorites.

But, Milwaukee’s lineup cannot hit left-handed pitching, and the Under has cashed in 4 straight Brewers-Mets games in N.Y.

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Author: Lucy Green