Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Miami Marlins (18-23) play the Tampa Bay Rays (25-17) Wednesday in the second game of a 2-game set at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa beat Miami 4-0 in the series opener Tuesday thanks to a quality start by LHP Shane McClanahan who pitched 6-scoreless innings, striking out 9 with just 2 walks and 4 hits.

Season series: Tampa leads 1-0.

Marlins at Rays projected starters

RHP Cody Poteet vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen

Poteet is 0-0 with a 0.78 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 23 IP over 1 start and 9 relief appearances.

  • Last start: No-decision with 4 2/3-scoreless IP, 1 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Miami’s 5-1 home win vs. the Washington Nationals May 17.

Rasmussen is 4-1 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 across 38 2/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 6-1, at home vs. the Detroit Tigers last Wednesday with 5-scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 7 K.

Marlins at Rays odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Rays -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-150) | Rays -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

Marlins at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 3, Marlins 1

Money line

LEAN to the RAYS (-180) only because there’s reverse line movement headed towards Miami in the betting market and the Under is my favorite wager in this game.

However, Tampa is the right side because the Rays dominate interleague play while the Marlins struggle against AL teams and Rasmussen is very effective on extended rest.

Tampa has the second-best interleague record at 18-6 straight up (SU) since the beginning of last season and Miami is an MLB-worst 5-21 SU in interleague play over that span.

Rasmussen’s last start was a week ago and he is 3-0 for his career in starts with 6 or more rest days in between with a 1.59 ERA (3.05 career ERA), 0.71 WHIP (1.10 career WHIP) and 5.4 K/BB rate (3.1 K/BB career rate).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS because I’m not confident enough in Tampa to lay it with the Rays -1.5 (+125). Also, the Marlins are 10-3 RL as road underdogs while the Rays are 7-13 RL as home favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+110) only because the market is hammering the Over so there’s a chance we get a better number closer to the first pitch.

However, Tampa is 8-12 O/U as a home favorite, 0-5 O/U in Rasmussen’s past 6 starts with six or more days of rest and Tropicana Field is 24th in park factor — it’s very pitcher-friendly. Miami is 9-17 O/U vs. AL teams since the start of last season.

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Author: Lucy Green