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The Miami Marlins (39-41) begin a 4-game series at Citi Field Thursday with the New York Mets (51-31) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami had its 6-game winning streak snapped Wednesday in a 5-2 home loss to the Los Angeles Angels, but the Marlins are 7-3 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games.
N.Y. won the rubber match of a 3-game set at the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday, 8-3 in extra innings, and the Mets are just 5-5 SU in the last 10.
The Mets lead the season series with the Marlins 5-2, and N.Y. has a plus-12 run differential in those meetings.
Marlins at Mets projected starters
LHP Daniel Castano vs. RHP Trevor Williams
Castano is 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 5.2 K/9 in 4 starts and 3 relief appearances.
- Last start: Win 5-3 Saturday at the Washington Nationals with 5 IP, 3 R (1 ER), 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 K.
- 2022 vs. the Mets: One start — a no-decision in Miami’s 3-2 home win June 26 — with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.
Williams is 1-5 with a 4.34 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 45 2/3 IP over 7 starts and 8 relief appearances.
- Last start: Loss 7-3 Saturday at home vs. the Texas Rangers with 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.
- 2021 vs. the Marlins: 0-0 with a 1.08 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 9 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 0 BB and 10 K.
Marlins at Mets odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Mets -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Mets -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Marlins at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 7, Marlins 3
Money line
LEAN METS (-175) as maybe a “flat-bet” only because I’m confident enough in the Mets to lay it with their RL.
But, N.Y. has a 3-phase edge over the Marlins (+140) in starting, relief pitching and hitting, and this is a much more profitable spot for N.Y.
The Mets are 5-1 SU as home favorites of -150 or greater vs. left-handed starters with a plus-23.1% return on investment (ROI) and an average score of 5.50-1.67.
On the other hand, the Marlins are 4-10 SU as road underdogs of +125 or more vs. right-handed starters with a minus-33.8% ROI and a minus-0.93 average margin of victory (5.36-4.43).
I’d rather take N.Y.’s RL otherwise “FLAT-BET” the METS (-175) risking 1 unit because of the price instead of betting to win 1 unit.
Run line/Against the spread
BET METS -1.5 (+120) because 4 of their 5 wins vs. the Marlins +1.5 (-145) have been by at least 2 runs, N.Y. is 18-16 RL and 23-10 RL vs. NL East foes. Also, the Mets are 4-2 RL as home favorites of -150 or greater vs. left-handed starters with a plus-33.1% ROI.
The METS -1.5 (+120) is my favorite look in this game.
Over/Under
PASS.
I “lean” to the Over 8.5 (-107) because nearly all the money in the market is on the Under 8.5 (-115) according to Pregame.com, and there’s value typically in fading lopsided markets in sports betting. However, the situational O/U trends don’t provide a clue, and N.Y.’s ML and RL are much better looks.
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