Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Los Angeles Angels (27-26) meet the Philadelphia Phillies (23-29) Saturday at Citizens Bank Park for the 2nd game of their 3-game interleague set. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A.’s 10-0 loss in Philly for the series opener Friday was the Angels’ 9th consecutive loss and the Phillies’ 2nd straight win. Philly RHP Zach Eflin pitched 8-scoreless innings and OFs Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper each hit 2 home runs.

Angels at Phillies projected starters

RHP Michael Lorenzen vs. RHP Zack Wheeler  

Lorenzen is 5-2 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 48 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in 6-5 home loss to the Toronto Blue Jays May 28 with 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 2 K.

Wheeler is 3-3 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 51 1/3 IP across 9 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in 5-4 loss at the New York Mets Sunday with 6 IP, 1 ER (3 R), 4 H, 3 BB and 7 K.

Angels at Phillies odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Angels +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Phillies -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Angels +1.5 (-135) | Phillies -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

Angels at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 7, Angels 2

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the PHILLIES (-190) instead of betting 1 unit because this is an expensive ML. However, the Angels have been terrible recently and Wheeler is a bonafide ace.

L.A.’s lineup ranks in the bottom-10 of the MLB in wOBA (.304), hard-hit rate (35.5%) and BB/K rate (0.29) over the past two weeks, according to FanGraphs. L.A.’s bullpen has a 6.15 ERA (ranked 26th), 4.74 FIP (21st) and 1.59 home run per 9-inning rate during that span.

Wheeler’s advanced pitching numbers are outstanding. He grades in the 81st percentile or better in expected ERA (81st), expected wOBA (81st), expected slugging percentage (83rd) and chase rate (92nd), per Statcast.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Phillies -1.5 (+110) isn’t a big enough payout considering how poorly they’ve played recently. Philly is just 3-7 overall in its last 10 games and just fired now-former manager Joe Girardi before Friday’s series opener with the Angels.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-125) since it’s the pricier option, which suggests oddsmakers are trying to entice more Over-action, both lineups have been awful lately, fewer than 9 runs have been scored in five of Wheeler’s nine starts and Citizens Bank Park is tied for dead-last in park factor, making it the most pitch-friendly venue in the MLB.

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Author: Lucy Green