Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Toronto Blue Jays (27-20) host the Chicago White Sox (23-23) Tuesday for the start of a 3-game series at Rogers Centre. First pitch is set for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago is 5-5 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games. The White Sox split their 2-game interleague series with the Chicago Cubs this past weekend after dropping 2 of 3 at home vs. the Boston Red Sox.

Toronto is on a 5-game win streak, which includes a 4-game road sweep of the Los Angeles Angels. The Blue Jays are 7-3 SU in their last 10 contests.

The White Sox won last year’s season series with the Blue Jays 4-3 and Chicago had a plus-7 run differential in those meetings.

White Sox at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Lucas Giolito vs. RHP Kevin Gausman 

Giolito is 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP across 7 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 3-1, Wednesday at home vs. the Boston Red Sox with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 7 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Blue Jays: One start — a no-decision in Chicago’s 3-1 loss in Toronto Aug. 25 — with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K.

Gausman is 4-3 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 56 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 8-1, last Tuesday at the St. Louis Cardinals with 6-scoreless IP, 4 H, 2 BB and 8 K.

White Sox at Blue Jays odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): White Sox +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Blue Jays -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox +1.5 (-145) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

White Sox at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 5, White Sox 1

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the BLUE JAYS (-180) instead of betting 1 unit because we are a little late to the party on Toronto’s ML but it has a 3-phase edge over the White Sox in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

The Blue Jays are 23-15 SU vs. right-handed starters while the White Sox are 17-19 SU against righty starters. Chicago’s lineup is 28th in both wRC+ and wOBA, 25th in BB/K rate and dead-last in hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs.

Gausman has pitched at a Cy Young-caliber in his first year as a Blue Jay and has outstanding pitching peripherals, including the best chase rate in baseball, according to Statcast. Toronto’s bullpen has a better ERA, WHIP, FIP and K/BB rate than Chicago’s, per FanGraphs.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Blue Jays -1.5 (+120) isn’t a big enough payout considering Toronto is just 6-14 RL as a home favorite while Chicago is 6-3 RL as a road underdog. The Under is also showing some value so save some betting bandwidth for the total.

Over/Under

BET a half-unit on the UNDER 7.5 (-107).

These teams have a combined 5-9 O/U with these starters on the mound, Rogers Centre is more pitcher-friendly this season (ranked 20th in park factor), Toronto is 7-13 O/U as a home favorite, Chicago is 3-6 O/U as a road underdog and White Sox and Blue Jays are 1-4 O/U in the last 5 games in Toronto.

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Author: Lucy Green