Chicago Cubs at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Chicago Cubs (23-34) enter the gauntlet to face the New York Yankees (42-16) Saturday in the 2nd of a 3-game set at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The Yankees lead 1-0. The teams hadn’t played since 2017 before Friday.

What is going on with the Yankees? I literally sat in disbelief watching the game Friday as they needed 13 innings to dispose of the Cubs. RHP Luis Severino was awesome, allowing 1 run on 7 hits and a walk while fanning 10 in 6 innings. The bullpen was lights out as well with 7 scoreless innings.

However, the Yanks had so many opportunities, and OF Aaron Judge was forced to watch as he didn’t see a single pitch in extras. C Jose Trevino, pinch-hitting as the last man available for either team, finally got it done with a hit to left field after the team went through its batting order twice in extras.

The Cubs battled and were forced to use their bullpen for 9 2/3 innings. It only allowed 1 earned run and struck out 10. There might be a carryover effect for tonight’s game, and they’ll need length from their starter. Star C Willson Contreras may also be on the bench after he caught 13 innings last night.

Cubs at Yankees projected starters

RHP Matt Swarmer vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

Swarmer (1-0, 1.50 ERA) makes his 3rd career start. He has a 0.83 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 12 IP.

  • Beat the St. Louis Cardinals June 4 with 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 5 K.
  • He utilizes a slider, fastball (90-mph avg.) and changeup. He uses the slider 52% of the time.

Montgomery (1-1, 3.02 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 59 2/3 IP.

  • Allowed 2 ER on 3 hits and 4 walks while fanning 3 over 6 2/3 innings in 1 career start against the Cubs in 2017.
  • His ERA is slightly higher at home at 3.15 (as opposed to 2.84 on the road) with a better 0.82 WHIP and higher K-rate at 7.1.
  • Current Cubs hitters have hit .286 with a 21.4 K% in 28 plate appearances against him.

Cubs at Yankees odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Cubs +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Yankees -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-105) | Yankees -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Cubs at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 7, Cubs 4

Money line

The books are really daring you to take the Cubs as they were +200 at time of publication yesterday, while the Yankees were -250. They want you to think: “Well, the Yankees needed 13 to beat the Cubs yesterday, maybe…” No. The Yankees overlooked the competition yesterday, and the Cubs threw everything in their bullpen to try to win and missed their chance.

Now they’re spent and against the ropes. The Cubs are a tick better against left-handed starters hitting .244 as opposed to .242 against righties. It’s not enough to move the needle. I’m also not confident enough in Montgomery to take the first 5 innings. So, we’ll PASS and look to the spread.

Run line/Against the spread

The Yankees are now 30-28 on the run line this season, but they’ll be swinging with a little extra aggression after they were nearly embarrassed last night. The Yankees have won 9 of their last 10 games, and 6 of them came by multiple runs. It was -115 yesterday as well, which tells you how confident the book is in this one, too. Take the YANKEES -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

The Under obviously hit last night, but the Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 for the Yanks. The Over is 4-0 in Montgomery’s last 4 starts as a favorite and is 3-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 4 interleague games against a right-handed starter. Neither starter has plus-stuff. I’m not as quick to lock in this one after yesterday’s debacle, but LEAN OVER 8.5 (-120).

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Author: Lucy Green