Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Toronto Blue Jays (40-32) host the Boston Red Sox (42-31) Monday for the start of their 3-game series at the Rogers Centre with the 1st pitch scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston has swept 2 consecutive opponents (the Detroit Tigers last week and Cleveland Guardians last weekend) and the Red Sox are 8-2 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.

Toronto is just 3-7 SU in the last 10, which includes 3 straight series losses to the New York Yankees, at the Chicago White Sox and at the Milwaukee Brewers last weekend.

The Blue Jays lead the season series with the Red Sox 5-2 and have a plus-5 run differential in those meetings.

Red Sox at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Connor Seabold vs. RHP Kevin Gausman    

Seabold is making his 2022 debut for the Red Sox.

  • One career start in September 2021: A no-decision in Boston’s 9-8 win at the White Sox with 3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 0 K.
  • 2022 minor league stats: 5-1 with a 2.26 ERA (51 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 11 starts for Boston’s Triple-A affiliate in Worcester.

Gausman is 5-6 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 79 IP over 14 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Toronto’s 7-6 loss at the White Sox Tuesday with 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Red Sox: 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA (14 IP, 1 ER), 11 H, 0 BB and 17 K in 2 starts.

Red Sox at Blue Jays odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Red Sox +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Blue Jays -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-135) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Red Sox at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 5, Red Sox 3

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the BLUE JAYS (-190) instead of betting 1 unit because of the price and Toronto’s 2-phase edge over the Red Sox (+155) in starting and hitting matchups.

Gausman’s pitching peripherals are much better than his basic numbers so there’s improvement expected for Gausman’s ERA and win-loss record. Also, the Blue Jays are 8-0 SU as home favorites between -150 and -200 vs. right-handed starters with an average final score of 6.25-3.00.

Toronto’s lineup is better than Boston’s vs. right-handed pitching across several advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+ (109-105), wOBA (.325-.320), ISO (.175-.153) and hard-hit rate (34.1-32.2%), per FanGraphs.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Blue Jays -1.5 (+110) just isn’t a big enough payout considering how well the Red Sox +1.5 (-135) have played this month. Also, Toronto is just 10-21 RL as home favorites and Boston is 19-10 RL as underdogs.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-120) because the price suggests it’s the sharper play and there’s a suspicious line freeze in the betting market for the total.

More than 90% of the action is on the Over 9.5 (-105) per Pregame.com but the total hasn’t budged off the opener. Typically, oddsmakers adjust the lines according to the market’s behavior so this “line freeze” could be the sportsbooks’ way of daring bettors to bet the Over.

However, Toronto’s ML is my favorite look in this game, the Rogers Centre is a hitter-friendly ballpark and the Blue Jays are 19-16 O/U at home and 35-22-1 O/U vs. right-handed starters.

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Author: Lucy Green