Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

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The Cleveland Guardians (36-28) host the Boston Red Sox (39-31) for the start of a 3-game series at Progressive Field with Friday’s 1st pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston is 8-2 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games and is on a 4-game winning streak.

Cleveland is also 8-2 SU in the last 10 and is tied atop the AL Central with the Minnesota Twins.

The Red Sox lead the season series 4-2 and have outscored the Guardians by 38-23 in the 6 games.

Red Sox at Guardians projected starters

RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP Cal Quantrill    

Pivetta is 7-5 with a 3.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 81 2/3 IP over 14 starts.

  • Last start: Won 6-4 Sunday at home vs. the St. Louis Cardinals with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 10 K.
  • 2022 road splits: 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 4 HR and 9.5 K/9 in 39 2/3 IP over 7 starts.

Quantrill is 4-4 with a 3.77 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 71 2/3 IP over 12 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 7-1 Saturday at the Los Angeles Dodgers with 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Red Sox: 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA (13 IP, 6 ER), 13 H, 4 HR, 4 BB and 12 K in 2 starts.

Red Sox at Guardians odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Guardians +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+130) | Guardians +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

Red Sox at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 5, Red Sox 4

Money line

BET the GUARDIANS (+102) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Red Sox (-120) in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

Quantrill grades much higher than Pivetta in several advanced pitching metrics such as exit velocity (65-9%), hard-hit rate (76-15%) and chase rate (80-22%), according to Statcast.

Furthermore, Cleveland’s bullpen is better than Boston’s by ERA (3.80-2.94), xFIP (4.07-3.54), hard-hit rate (41.5-37.5%) and K/BB rate (2.88-2.62), per FanGraphs.

Finally, the Guardians are 23-19 SU against right-handed starters while the Red Sox are 26-27 SU vs. righties. Also, Cleveland’s lineup outperforms Boston’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (109-102), wOBA (.319-.315) and BB/K rate (0.44-0.35), according to FanGraphs.

BET 1 unit on the GUARDIANS (+102).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

This is a good spot for the Red Sox -1.5 (+135) since they are 6-1 RL following a rest day and 4-1 RL as road favorites vs. teams with a winning record since the beginning of last season. As much as I’d like some insurance for Cleveland’s ML, the Guardians +1.5 (-170) is just too expensive.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-135), if at all.

Red Sox-Guardians are 13-6-1 O/U in their last 20 meetings, Boston is 4-2-1 O/U following a rest day and Cleveland is 6-2 O/U as home underdogs vs. teams with a winning record.

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Author: Lucy Green