Atlanta Braves at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Atlanta Braves (63-42) and New York Mets (66-38) open a 5-game Citi Field series Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 4-3.

The Braves are 4-1 over their last 5 games. Atlanta owns a 1.60 ERA over that stretch and a 2.88 mark since July 1.

The Mets are 8-1 in their last 9 games. The New York surge has been led by the club’s offense: the Mets have batted .317/.378/.548 (.926 OPS) over the 9 games.

Braves at Mets projected starters

RHP Kyle Wright vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco

Wright (13-4, 2.93 ERA) is lined up for his 21st start of the 2022 campaign. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 122 2/3 IP.

  • Owns a 5.64 ERA over his last 5 starts against the Mets.
  • Averages 91 pitches per start. Has given Atlanta 6 innings-plus in 8 of his last 10 starts.

Carrasco (11-4, 3.79 ERA) owns a 1.31 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 111 2/3 IP across 20 starts.

  • Has not allowed a run since July 9 and owns an 0.90 ERA since July 3.
  • Current Braves batters own an aggregate .785 OPS against him.

Braves at Mets odds and lines

  • Money line: Braves +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+165) | Mets +1.5 (-205)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

Braves at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Mets 3

Money line

Wright has been pitching well on the road (2.72 road ERA), and Carrasco feels a bit overrated from his recent starts.

The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 series openers.

TAKE ATLANTA (+102). Consider a partial-unit play up until a full-trigger point of +107.

Run line/Against the spread

AVOID: the juice is loose and likely drowns out true odds in the middle.

Over/Under

The Under is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 games at home, and it’s 4-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 games.

Both starters are adept at inducing ground balls, which will be key on a warm, humid, wind-out night in Queens. Both bullpens are in good shape.

This one is worth a line watch. Take the UNDER 8.5 (-125) for a HALF UNIT, but feel free to go a full unit if the line hits -120.

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Author: Lucy Green