Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (39-52) wrap up their 6-game road trip Sunday with the 3rd and final game of their series against the San Diego Padres (52-41). First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Padres lead the season series 9-2.

The Padres picked up a 4-3 win Saturday night after winning Friday’s game 5-3 and will look to complete the sweep Sunday. They are 6-10 in their last 16 games.

The Diamondbacks have lost 4 straight games and 8 of their last 10.

Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters

RHP Merrill Kelly vs. RHP Mike Clevinger

Kelly (8-5, 3.36 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 104 1/3 IP.

  • Has been solid in July. He’s 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA in 3 starts and 20 1/3 innings this month.
  • In his 1 start gainst the Padres, he did not allow a run in 4 IP.

Clevinger (2-2, 3.79 ERA) makes his 9th start in 10 appearances. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 40 1/3 IP.

  • Has faced Arizona twice this season and the Padres won both starts. He has allowed 1 R on 6 H in 10 IP vs. the Diamondbacks.
  • Has lost his last 2 starts and allowed 4 runs in each.

Diamondbacks at Padres odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Diamondbacks +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Padres -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-165) | Padres -1.5 (+133)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 6, Padres 3

Money line

The Diamondbacks have managed to avoid being swept in all but 3 series this season. The Dodgers have swept them twice and the Padres once. But they manage to salvage 1 game out of almost every series.

The Padres have 5 series sweeps this season, including one against the Diamondbacks, but they are only 25-20 at home this season.

Kelly has been on his game again and Clevinger has allowed 8 runs in his last 11 1/3 innings. The Arizona bats will come alive early and the Padres will play from behind with another strong outing by Kelly.

This is the best bet of the afternoon. Take the DIAMONDBACKS (+130) to win.

Run line/Against the spread

The Diamondbacks have been a very good bet against the spread this season. Their 51-40 ATS mark overall is the 4th-best in baseball. They have covered the spread in 8 of their last 12 games.

Meanwhile, the Padres are only 15-30 ATS at home this season.

However, because I like the D-backs to win outright, the money line is the better play. But if you want a slightly safer bet than an Arizona win, the run line is still just within the range that is worth some action. Take the DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-165) if you aren’t as confident in an outright win.

Over/Under

Eleven of the Diamondbacks’ last 12 wins have had at least 8 total runs. In 25 of their 39 wins, the total has been at least 8 runs.

Six of the Padres’ last 7 games have had 8 or more runs.

Take OVER 7.5 (-102).

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