With all the excitement around Tom Brady’s decision not to retire, Aaron Rodgers returning to the Packers, Russell Wilson now playing for the Broncos, and Tyreek Hill’s departure from KC, Josh Allen has risen atop the MVP odds board.

Tom Brady opened at +2,200 to win the 2022-23 NFL MVP award, ballooned to +4,500 after he announced his retirement, and has now settled at +800 (for now) after changing his mind. 

Still, even with Brady back in the fold, Aaron Rodgers returning to the Green Bay Packers, and Russell Wilson in Denver, the NFL MVP odds action wasn’t done. The most recent offseason blockbuster, which saw A.J. Brown get traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, saw Jalen Hurts’ odds jump all the way up to +1,800.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of July 7, 2022.


Favorites to win NFL MVP

Josh Allen (+700)

The Bills often looked like world-beaters with Allen at the helm in 2021, but they also dropped games to the Steelers and Jaguars en route to an 11-6 record. Allen threw 15 interceptions — only Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence had more passes picked off — but still came through in the clutch when it mattered most.

Allen showed his mettle in two postseason games and even though the Bills were ousted by Mahomes and the Chiefs, Allen threw nine touchdowns on 637 yards passing with zero picks in the postseason.


Tom Brady (+800)

Brady came out of retirement and immediately saw his MVP odds get exponentially slashed. The fact that he was still on the board at +4,500 prior to his announcement shows there was at least a smidge of doubt about whether or not it would stick. As soon as it was known he’d be playing again, those odds were doomed, and the market adjusted accordingly on the day following the announcement.

The ageless wonder threw for a career-high 5,316 passing yards (albeit, the season had one more game) and led the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns. Brady’s already won the award three times (2007, 2010, 2017) and could join an exclusive club of four-time winners (Rodgers, Peyton Manning).

Author: Lucy Green